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Living alternative history: reality check

September 9, 2020

5 of 45 Presidents Came into Office Without Getting the Most Votes Nationwide: John Q. Adams (1824), Rutherford B. Hayes (1876), Benjamin Harrison (1888), George W. Bush (2000), Donald Trump (2016). Alternative history, anyone? Check out the chart. Will we wonder, What if we had not lost so much in the Middle East? What if we still had a democracy?

In 2016, Donald Trump became President even though Hillary Clinton won the national popular vote by 2,868,518 votes. Trump won because he carried Michigan by 11,000 votes, Wisconsin by 23,000 votes, and Pennsylvania by 44,000 votes. Each of these 78,000 votes was 36 times more important than the 2,868,518 votes cast in other states.

In 2000, George W. Bush became President even though Al Gore won the national popular vote by 537,179 votes. Bush won because he carried Florida by 537 votes. Each of these 537 votes was 1,000 times more important than the 537,179 votes cast in other states. More…

The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes across all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Explanation. It has been enacted into law in 16 jurisdictions with 196 electoral votes (CA, CO, CT, DC, DE, HI, IL, MA, MD, NJ, NMNY, ORRI, VT, WA). The bill will go into effect when enacted by states with an additional 74 electoral votes. See map.

nationalpopularvote.com “Last week, Nate Silver, the polling analyst, tweeted a chart illustrating the chances that Joe Biden would become president if he wins the most votes in November.

“Mr. Silver’s analysis is bracing. If Mr. Biden wins by five percentage points or more — if he beats Donald Trump by more than seven million votes — he’s a virtual shoo-in. If he wins 4.5 million more votes than the president? He’s still got a three-in-four chance to be president.

“Anything less, however, and Mr. Biden’s odds drop like a rock. A mere three million-vote Biden victory? A second Trump term suddenly becomes more likely than not. If Mr. Biden’s margin drops to 1.5 million — about the populations of Rhode Island and Wyoming combined — forget about it. The chance of a Biden presidency in that scenario is less than one in 10.” —By Jesse Wegman, NYT, Read the article: The Electoral College Will Destroy America.

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